Aid agencies ready to help in Sudan if referendum erupts into conflict

Friday, January 7, 2011

By Tim Costello
CEO World Vision Australia

The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald 

Seldom is there a warning of a looming crisis. Natural disasters come as a shock to everyone. However as Africa's largest nation prepares for a critical referendum, people in many parts of Sudan already know that their future is precarious. Many are already moving from the most volatile districts as both North and South Sudanese face this critical juncture. 

More than 53,000 returnees from northern Sudan have arrived in the south of the country, some to participate in the upcoming referenda, while others are fleeing armed conflict in the west. Most of the returnees are women and children who need assistance. The United Nations Office for the Co‐ordination of Humanitarian Affairs says thousands more are on their way. 

Unlike the earthquake in Haiti and the Asian Tsunami where there were no warnings and agencies were required to respond overnight, World Vision has spent the past weeks preparing to launch, if required, a high level emergency response to the expected increase in humanitarian needs in Sudan. 

It is hoped that the upcoming referendum this week (ed: January 9) – where the South will decide if they remain part of Sudan or become the world’s newest country – takes place without the violence that has plagued this nation’s past. 

Yet it is notable that Sudan is even walking this difficult road. Its history since independence in 1956 of Africa’s largest country is one of conflict. The last civil war endured for more than two decades, one of the longest in Africa, ending only on the signing of a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005. The fighting resulted in an estimated 2 million deaths and 4 million refugees. 

The referendum for the south of Sudan to vote on remaining within Sudan or becoming an independent state is one of the final provisions in the CPA. Another remaining element is for the people of the oil‐rich Abyei province to decide whether to join the North or the South. This referendum – smaller but consequential ‐ is likely to be delayed. 

Analysts expect most southern Sudanese will vote on the weekend for independence, but fear the Khartoum Government in the north will not give up the oil‐rich south without a fight. 

With so much riding on the outcome, a new arrangement, with governments in both the north and the south, will require leaders bringing extraordinary skill and restraint to avoid a return to debilitating and devastating conflict. 
With the attention of international observers focused firmly on the referendum, it is feared that one of Africa’s most brutal rebel groups, the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), may use the instability to attack villages in the South, while rebel and military clashes in the Darfur region – itself the focus of intense international dialogue in recent days ‐ are expected to escalate. 

The international community is aware of the situation and extensive diplomatic negotiations have taken place with Khartoum. US President Barack Obama recently hinted that the terror warning on Sudan may lift if the Sudanese government respects the South’s participation in the referendum and does not contest its outcome. 

Southern Sudan is extremely poor and humanitarian agencies fear a new influx of people will impose further pressure on limited resources. The United Nations Development Program estimates that 90 percent of people in Southern Sudan live in poverty; barely one in five children complete primary school; clean water is only available to one in four people in some regions and the number of women who die due to pregnancy related issues is among the highest in the world. 

Many concerned Sudanese who have been living in developed countries such as Australia ‐ with good jobs, safety and security ‐ are now also flocking back to Southern Sudan to live in much poorer and riskier circumstances so they can be ready to help the region to stand on its own feet when ‐ and if ‐ the times comes. 
But even with the gaze of international observers and ex‐patriate Sudanese returning home, more needs to be done to make sure Sudan can take steady steps on the difficult road to peace. The international community must reaffirm its will not just to referendum dates and fair outcomes, but ‐ having neglected this region for too long ‐ guarantee a partnership with its peoples. 

Sudanese families in rural villages and in the urban centres of Juba, Nyala and Khartoum dream of education, safety, health ‐ the basics ‐ so their kids can develop and prosper through opportunities that have bypassed most of their parents. 

We must walk the long road with these communities, joining with them in their will to make it a reality. 

Opinion Pieces, Africa, Election, Foreign Aid, International Development, President Obama, South Sudan, Sudan, Tim Costello

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